tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1954 United SFO 08:13 PIT 15:57 8% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 07:45 → PIT 10:48DL 845 7h 13m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → PIT 16:38DL 1188 7h 48m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 7h 16m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02AA 234 1h 39m New York JFK 16:41 → PIT 18:26AA 4734 · flown by Republic 9h 11m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:10 → ATL 19:01DL 693 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351 10h 12m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:55DL 1134 7h 13m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122 9h 45m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 05m Houston IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315 7h 56m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 14:00 → ATL 21:51DL 531 48m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351 7h 22m 69% 58%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:10 → ATL 19:01DL 693 48m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PIT 21:35DL 2583 7h 25m 65% 53%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 08:32 → BOS 17:10B6 434 52m Boston BOS 18:02 → PIT 20:07B6 2185 8h 35m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON