Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 5214 at 10:16, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 5214 SkyWest	SFO 10:16	PSC 12:16	25%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → PSC 11:44DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:36 → SEA 19:34AS 1340	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon	6h 07m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:58 → SEA 12:57AS 580	3h 31m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	6h 29m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 1088	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PSC 22:10DL 1712	5h 05m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 235	47m Portland	PDX 14:31 → PSC 15:22AS 2475 · flown by Horizon	3h 25m	58%	48%
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596	52m Denver	DEN 19:04 → PSC 20:30UA 1737	6h 10m	62%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON