Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 717 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 717 SFO 08:33 → PSP 10:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest QX 2400 SFO 17:07 → PSP 18:32 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 717 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	PSP 10:15	9%	4%	0.7%	95%
QX 2167 Horizon	SFO 08:35	PSP 10:09	14%	5%	1.6%	no record
UA 342 United	SFO 12:43	PSP 14:26	19%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 3356 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:19	PSP 21:57	21%	11%	0.8%	61%
OO 4671 SkyWest	SFO 16:28	PSP 18:24	25%	13%	0.7%	no record
OO 5510 SkyWest	SFO 10:28	PSP 12:36	27%	11%	0.7%	no record
OO 3462 SkyWest	SFO 10:54	PSP 12:32	29%	12%	0.8%	no record
QX 2400 Horizon	SFO 17:07	PSP 18:32	33%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON