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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2080 United Flight history → SFO 00:03 RDU 08:26 10% 3% 0.6% 91%
UA 2816 United SFO 08:13 RDU 16:30 10% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699 9h 12m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:05 → PHL 08:35AA 2663 2h 04m Philadelphia PHL 10:39 → RDU 12:19AA 3152 9h 14m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 1h 16m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407 7h 28m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 7h 16m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932 8h 17m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600 8h 25m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:55 → DTW 19:26DL 361 2h 14m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 8h 30m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 2h 59m Dulles IAD 22:10 → RDU 23:29UA 2382 9h 39m 96% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON