Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 22–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2690 SFO 16:47 → RNO 17:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 581 SFO 18:37 → RNO 19:42 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2690 United	SFO 16:47	RNO 17:56	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	SFO 22:28	RNO 23:33	24%	8%	0.6%	64%
UA 1845 United	SFO 10:42	RNO 11:52	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 581 United	SFO 18:37	RNO 19:42	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON