Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1892 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1892 SFO 07:47 → SAN 09:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4325 SFO 13:02 → SAN 14:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1892 Southwest	SFO 07:47	SAN 09:25	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1980 United Flight history →	SFO 06:59	SAN 08:52	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 444 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	SAN 09:59	14%	5%	0.6%	81%
AS 501 Alaska	SFO 07:02	SAN 08:36	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1485 Alaska	SFO 08:18	SAN 09:51	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 3306 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:45	SAN 11:28	22%	10%	1.4%	48%
UA 1389 United	SFO 22:48	SAN 00:39	22%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 442 United	SFO 20:55	SAN 22:32	24%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1257 United Flight history →	SFO 12:21	SAN 14:08	24%	10%	0.6%	67%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	SFO 16:47	SAN 18:39	25%	10%	0.6%	59%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	SFO 14:15	SAN 16:02	26%	9%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
UA 2177 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	SAN 11:51	27%	10%	0.6%	68%
F9 3382 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 21:08	SAN 22:59	27%	14%	4.3%	47%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	SFO 18:46	SAN 20:22	29%	11%	0.6%	78%
AS 740 Alaska	SFO 10:38	SAN 12:13	29%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 3787 Southwest	SFO 15:27	SAN 17:10	31%	12%	0.8%	no record
AS 1492 Alaska	SFO 16:41	SAN 18:15	31%	8%	1.0%	no record
OO 939 SkyWest	SFO 11:57	SAN 13:40	32%	11%	1.3%	no record
WN 4325 Southwest	SFO 13:02	SAN 14:40	33%	11%	0.8%	no record
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 18:42	SAN 20:21	68%	24%	4.8%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON