tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2365 at 12:18, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2365 United SFO 12:18 SAT 17:54 20% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 9h 11m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 02m Houston IAH 09:36 → SAT 10:51UA 1371 8h 06m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 3h 47m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 8h 43m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 5h 46m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 51m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 8h 53m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:00 → LAX 08:30DL 1598 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 5h 53m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 10h 29m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:35 → SLC 16:23DL 902 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SAT 21:08DL 2797 5h 33m 71% 58%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:55 → DTW 19:26DL 361 49m Detroit DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365 8h 27m 69% 54%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 57m 58% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON