Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2721 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2721 SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 580 SFO 10:58 → SEA 12:57 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2721 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:55	SEA 08:05	6%	2%	1.0%	95%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	18%	6%	0.8%	77%
OO 5790 SkyWest	SFO 07:42	SEA 10:12	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	SEA 23:17	22%	10%	0.8%	67%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SFO 20:54	SEA 23:19	22%	9%	0.6%	66%
DL 1053 Delta	SFO 10:16	SEA 12:22	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 1327 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:00	SEA 11:15	28%	5%	1.0%	69%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	SFO 16:27	SEA 18:47	29%	9%	0.6%	76%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	31%	10%	0.8%	68%
AS 591 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:28	SEA 22:41	33%	10%	0.9%	72%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 11:59	SEA 14:03	34%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 500 United	SFO 10:12	SEA 12:22	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:12	SEA 17:11	38%	9%	0.8%	21%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:36	SEA 19:34	41%	10%	0.9%	69%
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:46	SEA 15:44	42%	8%	0.8%	57%
UA 1097 United	SFO 18:28	SEA 20:30	42%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 580 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:58	SEA 12:57	45%	7%	1.0%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON