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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 3440 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 3440 SFO 07:12 → SNA 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3210 SFO 11:43 → SNA 13:22 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 07:12 SNA 08:51 9% 2% 0.8% 92%
UA 589 United Flight history → SFO 19:27 SNA 21:12 10% 4% 0.6% 89%
OO 5405 SkyWest SFO 07:42 SNA 09:14 12% 3% 0.8% no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:28 SNA 11:11 16% 5% 0.8% 79%
UA 2441 United Flight history → SFO 12:25 SNA 14:09 17% 7% 0.6% 89%
UA 643 United Flight history → SFO 10:10 SNA 11:50 18% 6% 0.6% 82%
OO 5597 SkyWest SFO 16:51 SNA 18:46 20% 7% 0.8% no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:53 SNA 17:32 22% 5% 0.9% 71%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 SNA 15:29 22% 6% 0.8% 80%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:48 SNA 17:26 22% 5% 0.9% 85%
AS 269 Alaska SFO 17:02 SNA 18:23 26% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 3048 SkyWest SFO 10:30 SNA 12:12 26% 7% 0.8% no record
OO 3210 SkyWest SFO 11:43 SNA 13:22 27% 6% 0.8% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON