tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1905 United SFO 12:48 STL 18:48 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 7h 21m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 1h 24m Detroit DTW 14:33 → STL 15:17DL 1371 7h 37m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 2h 08m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 8h 04m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 8h 39m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259 3h 13m Houston IAH 20:05 → STL 22:07UA 1528 9h 17m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:35 → SLC 16:23DL 902 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → STL 21:00DL 2666 5h 25m 58% 48%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:12 → SEA 17:11AS 630 50m Seattle SEA 18:01 → STL 23:41AS 618 6h 29m 56% 42%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53AA 2761 6h 29m 61% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON