Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5986 at 18:55, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5986 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:55	SUN 21:51	16%	6%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 1088	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	83%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON