tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1702 United SFO 20:59 TPA 05:03 18% 6% 0.9% no record
UA 1484 United SFO 11:19 TPA 19:30 25% 8% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 51m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:14DL 2264 10h 39m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 1h 33m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 7h 42m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 14m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:05 → PHL 08:35AA 2663 2h 04m Philadelphia PHL 10:39 → TPA 13:40AA 2015 10h 35m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:07 → EWR 08:29UA 2416 3h 54m Newark EWR 12:23 → TPA 15:23UA 1273 12h 16m 100% 79%
FrontierDetails → SFO 06:00 → DEN 09:46F9 1230 1h 36m Denver DEN 11:22 → TPA 16:57F9 2748 7h 57m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 55m Houston IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501 8h 12m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:02 → IAD 08:01UA 2111 59m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 8h 30m 85% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:40 → MIA 17:19AA 2799 50m Miami MIA 18:09 → TPA 19:21AA 3246 7h 41m 67% 38%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 11:39 → BOS 20:11B6 1034 52m Boston BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 +1B6 591 9h 43m 58% 36%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:19 → TPA 21:57AA 2401 7h 33m 73% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON