tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5341 SkyWest SFO 18:59 TUS 21:13 21% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 5433 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:20 TUS 12:40 25% 7% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 47m Phoenix PHX 08:48 → TUS 09:54AA 6367 · flown by SkyWest 4h 04m 86% 72%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 20m Denver DEN 15:43 → TUS 16:46UA 2049 6h 06m 90% 71%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 7h 29m 96% 64%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:07 → DFW 13:35AA 304 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584 6h 54m 85% 48%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:26 → TUS 21:55AA 1580 7h 52m 82% 40%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596 58m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 5h 52m 69% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON