Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3842 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3842 SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4311 SGF 18:52 → DFW 20:32 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3842 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 05:01	DFW 06:38	6%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:06	DFW 08:39	9%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 3913 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:41	DFW 11:09	12%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 3624 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 08:15	DFW 09:55	13%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 12:16	DFW 13:47	18%	6%	1.1%	91%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 14:28	DFW 15:58	19%	6%	1.1%	78%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 16:11	DFW 17:40	26%	8%	1.7%	68%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 18:52	DFW 20:32	35%	16%	12.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON