tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5895 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 17m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 4852 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 38m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54DL 1680 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 05m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493 7h 35m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38AA 3842 · flown by Envoy 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:52 → LAS 09:50AA 1550 6h 49m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SGF 13:33 → DEN 14:48UA 5541 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Denver DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424 5h 38m 91% 70%
UnitedDetails → SGF 07:45 → ORD 09:40UA 4421 · flown by GoJet 1h 27m Chicago ORD 11:07 → LAS 13:05UA 1803 7h 20m 90% 67%
UnitedDetails → SGF 15:05 → IAH 17:10UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 55m Houston IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360 8h 18m 88% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SGF 18:52 → DFW 20:32AA 4311 · flown by Envoy 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18AA 2371 5h 26m 59% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON