Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 4742 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day OO 4742 SGF 05:59 → ORD 07:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5686 SGF 15:07 → ORD 16:57 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4742 SkyWest	SGF 05:59	ORD 07:35	14%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 4129 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:07	ORD 08:56	15%	6%	1.0%	83%
MQ 3584 Envoy	SGF 10:42	ORD 12:26	24%	8%	1.3%	no record
OO 5407 SkyWest	SGF 11:22	ORD 13:08	29%	13%	1.5%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	SGF 15:44	ORD 17:35	31%	8%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3594 Envoy	SGF 19:54	ORD 21:25	34%	6%	1.6%	no record
OO 4732 SkyWest	SGF 18:41	ORD 20:24	34%	11%	1.8%	no record
OO 5686 SkyWest	SGF 15:07	ORD 16:57	34%	14%	2.0%	no record
UA 4421 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 07:45	ORD 09:40	19%	9%	4.9%	81%
UA 4525 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:19	ORD 13:12	33%	18%	3.3%	67%
UA 4466 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:07	ORD 17:02	35%	17%	5.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON