Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3504 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3504 SHV 06:00 → ATL 09:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 4111 SHV 15:39 → ATL 18:38 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3504 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:00	ATL 09:00	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
9E 5024 Endeavor	SHV 10:25	ATL 13:28	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 4117 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 08:00	ATL 10:52	16%	6%	0.8%	86%
DL 4111 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 15:39	ATL 18:38	19%	9%	1.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON