Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 6419 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 6419 SHV 06:04 → DFW 07:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 6410 SHV 18:42 → DFW 20:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:04	DFW 07:26	10%	5%	1.1%	91%
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 10:05	DFW 11:14	12%	3%	1.5%	92%
OO 6331 SkyWest	SHV 11:45	DFW 13:05	16%	10%	1.3%	no record
OO 6341 SkyWest	SHV 08:20	DFW 09:40	16%	7%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3479 Envoy	SHV 14:23	DFW 15:27	18%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 18:42	DFW 20:05	20%	11%	3.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON