Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 654 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:35	ATL 14:15	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 809 Delta Flight history →	SJC 12:40	ATL 20:29	13%	5%	1.4%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 13m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:50 → SEA 20:08DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 23:07 → ATL 07:03 +1DL 567	10h 13m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 39m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	46m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	7h 02m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:35 → SLC 16:28DL 1254	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	7h 23m	93%	76%
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → ATL 23:47AS 1645	10h 28m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	11h 27m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON