Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3790 at 06:23, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3790 Southwest	SJC 06:23	AUS 11:59	4%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	10h 15m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	SJC 12:03 → PDX 13:48AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	3h 51m Portland	PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370	9h 46m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:35 → SLC 16:28DL 1254	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	5h 55m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → AUS 23:53DL 848	10h 18m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:47 → AUS 23:14DL 1081	8h 34m	92%	70%
American Details →	SJC 16:10 → PHX 18:05AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	1h 39m Phoenix	PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57AA 691	5h 47m	100%	68%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103	7h 49m	98%	65%
American Details →	SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → AUS 22:04AA 576	8h 03m	95%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON