Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3867 Southwest	SJC 05:58	BNA 12:23	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 13:02 → BNA 15:10DL 2101	6h 50m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091	1h 01m Las Vegas	LAS 08:51 → BNA 14:28WN 646	6h 07m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:35 → SLC 16:28DL 1254	2h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 19:19 → BNA 23:30DL 2317	7h 55m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → BNA 15:36DL 3142	7h 01m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 19m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121	8h 18m	98%	77%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:07 → BNA 16:11AA 1181	8h 10m	97%	63%
American Details →	SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:31 → BNA 21:35AA 2979	7h 34m	90%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON