Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 489 Southwest	SJC 12:43	BOI 15:36	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3413 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 19:48	BOI 22:33	12%	6%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon	6h 52m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:23DL 2095	5h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:21 → BOI 22:40DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest	4h 39m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	84%
American Details →	SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:10AA 1358	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → BOI 13:32AA 4080 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 16:49 → BOI 19:23DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → BOI 16:13DL 2920	5h 28m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 12:03 → PDX 13:48AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 14:49 → BOI 17:06AS 342	4h 03m	68%	56%
American Details →	SJC 14:35 → DFW 20:19AA 2834	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:05 → BOI 23:21AA 1104	7h 46m	56%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON