tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 09:46, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Eugene on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon 2h 59m Portland PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:18AS 2078 · flown by Horizon 5h 32m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091 2h 06m Las Vegas LAS 09:56 → EUG 12:24WN 1887 6h 03m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:50 → SEA 20:08DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 1h 42m Seattle SEA 21:50 → EUG 23:08DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 12:03 → PDX 13:48AS 2188 · flown by Horizon 46m Portland PDX 14:34 → EUG 15:29AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest 3h 26m 36% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON