Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866	7h 33m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:35 → SLC 16:28DL 1254	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54DL 2038	7h 19m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → EWR 17:41DL 2033	8h 41m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	8h 06m	89%	64%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	8h 19m	96%	64%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:37 → EWR 19:20AA 2861	10h 19m	98%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON