tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091 2h 06m Las Vegas LAS 09:56 → GEG 12:31WN 3717 6h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 12m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon 3h 00m Portland PDX 14:31 → GEG 15:41AS 1482 5h 55m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 12:03 → PDX 13:48AS 2188 · flown by Horizon 3h 40m Portland PDX 17:28 → GEG 18:38AS 452 6h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 1h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 21:10 → GEG 21:52DL 1466 4h 51m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Seattle SEA 15:45 → GEG 17:00DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 96% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 1h 52m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:39 → GEG 20:34AA 2757 8h 33m 73% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON