tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3144 Southwest SJC 13:48 HNL 16:34 15% 4% 0.5% no record
AS 838 Alaska SJC 06:58 HNL 09:32 16% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 9h 23m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:51WN 1091 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 10:06 → HNL 13:34WN 2296 10h 13m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 19m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953 1h 59m Kahului OGG 11:20 → HNL 12:10AS 1085 8h 10m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:11AA 1358 2h 34m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693 11h 39m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Seattle SEA 16:30 → HNL 19:36DL 419 11h 01m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:32 → HNL 16:37AA 115 13h 36m 97% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:45 → SEA 12:51AS 1311 52m Seattle SEA 13:43 → HNL 16:38AS 825 8h 53m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON