Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3809 at 07:28, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3809 Southwest	SJC 07:28	HOU 13:17	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091	3h 56m Las Vegas	LAS 11:46 → HOU 16:47WN 2298	8h 26m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 47m	92%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON