Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 10:19, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 16:12 → IAD 23:46AS 366	10h 27m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	9h 01m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847	6h 59m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	7h 39m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 11:58 → IAD 20:04DL 541	9h 44m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON