tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 17m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:35 → SLC 16:28DL 1254 1h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 6h 15m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223 8h 04m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:32 → IAH 15:50AA 9748 7h 49m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 8h 23m 96% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 53m 68% 40%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:35 → DFW 20:19AA 2834 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 5h 49m 63% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON