tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SJC 16:10 → PHX 18:05AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 3h 45m Phoenix PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587 10h 37m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Seattle SEA 16:15 → JFK 00:22 +1DL 1044 9h 47m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:50 → SEA 20:08DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Seattle SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452 10h 00m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 7h 40m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398 10h 28m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 55m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 9h 06m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:31 → JFK 23:15AA 1248 8h 14m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON