Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 222 Alaska	SJC 14:58	KOA 17:31	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:51WN 1091	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 09:26 → KOA 12:44WN 267	9h 23m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	1h 10m Kahului	OGG 10:31 → KOA 11:21AS 1030	7h 21m	94%	81%
American Details →	SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:11AA 1358	2h 29m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	11h 07m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON