Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1091 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1091 SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 5018 SJC 17:08 → LAS 18:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1091 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:21	LAS 07:50	2%	1%	0.6%	82%
WN 3863 Southwest	SJC 07:38	LAS 09:24	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2299 Southwest	SJC 09:03	LAS 10:49	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 8844 Delta	SJC 10:09	LAS 11:34	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 3810 Southwest	SJC 11:28	LAS 13:14	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1691 Southwest	SJC 14:11	LAS 15:42	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 1197 Southwest	SJC 17:53	LAS 19:39	22%	14%	1.3%	no record
WN 1329 Southwest	SJC 15:53	LAS 17:44	22%	13%	1.2%	no record
WN 5018 Southwest	SJC 17:08	LAS 18:54	22%	15%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON