Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2492 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2492 SJC 06:13 → LAX 07:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4940 SJC 18:14 → LAX 19:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2492 Southwest	SJC 06:13	LAX 07:31	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1362 Delta	SJC 06:58	LAX 08:27	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 8948 Delta	SJC 22:54	LAX 00:15	8%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 2112 Southwest	SJC 11:03	LAX 12:32	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:40	LAX 13:01	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	SJC 18:10	LAX 19:30	9%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 411 Southwest	SJC 13:03	LAX 14:32	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:25	LAX 22:00	9%	6%	0.6%	92%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	9%	4%	0.5%	92%
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 16:14	LAX 17:39	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4940 Southwest	SJC 18:14	LAX 19:34	15%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON