Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → LGA 19:00DL 2732	9h 40m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	9h 52m	98%	81%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → LGA 19:37AA 2434	10h 36m	98%	67%
American Details →	SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:57 → LGA 23:37AA 1375	8h 36m	84%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON