Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:51WN 1091	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:16 → LIH 12:43WN 4463	9h 22m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	2h 55m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 06m	98%	73%
American Details →	SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:11AA 1358	3h 01m Phoenix	PHX 11:12 → LIH 15:13AA 697	12h 14m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 23m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON