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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 17:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:50 → SEA 20:08DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 50m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091 1h 01m Las Vegas LAS 08:51 → MCO 16:21WN 2332 7h 00m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 3h 13m Seattle SEA 15:43 → MCO 23:59AS 420 10h 40m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 8h 12m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 46m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 7h 44m 88% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 11:14 → MCO 17:38DL 1691 8h 38m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MCO 00:15 +1DL 1162 8h 35m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:10AA 1358 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 09:58 → MCO 17:32AA 603 8h 33m 96% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON