Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3824 Southwest	SJC 22:54	MDW 05:02	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 692 Southwest	SJC 09:03	MDW 15:15	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091	1h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 09:01 → MDW 14:35WN 1659	6h 14m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 35m	76%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON