tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 15m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719 10h 09m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090 9h 02m 91% 54%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → MIA 16:48AA 2461 7h 47m 91% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:10AA 1358 48m Phoenix PHX 08:58 → MIA 16:36AA 1968 7h 37m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON