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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:35, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2156 Delta Flight history → SJC 06:20 MSP 11:59 5% 2% 0.6% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 6h 40m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 9h 59m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 5h 47m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981 10h 40m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:35 → SLC 16:28DL 1254 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MSP 20:58DL 2935 5h 23m 87% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:31 → MSP 17:07AA 2406 9h 06m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806 7h 20m 81% 54%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:35 → DFW 20:19AA 2834 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 7h 22m 82% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON