Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 953 at 07:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 953 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:00	OGG 09:21	10%	3%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:51WN 1091	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:21 → OGG 12:49WN 2354	9h 28m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	9h 21m	91%	75%
American Details →	SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:11AA 1358	2h 52m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	11h 33m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:45 → SEA 12:51AS 1311	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	9h 14m	77%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON