tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2740 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2740 United SJC 06:26 ORD 12:45 9% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 1650 United SJC 14:00 ORD 20:21 19% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 45m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 10h 03m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 9h 13m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:10AA 1358 1h 58m Phoenix PHX 10:08 → ORD 15:56AA 332 7h 57m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Seattle SEA 11:58 → ORD 18:00DL 637 8h 40m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 8h 37m 97% 64%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 50m 95% 62%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:01 → DFW 17:40AA 2046 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:26 → ORD 21:52AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 7h 51m 89% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON