Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3833 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3833 SJC 06:09 → PHX 08:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3379 SJC 16:03 → PHX 18:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3833 Southwest	SJC 06:09	PHX 08:06	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1358 American Flight history →	SJC 05:59	PHX 08:10	7%	4%	0.9%	97%
WN 1760 Southwest	SJC 11:28	PHX 13:28	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SJC 16:10	PHX 18:05	13%	5%	1.0%	97%worse than usual
WN 3834 Southwest	SJC 13:58	PHX 15:58	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3379 Southwest	SJC 16:03	PHX 18:03	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON