Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091	1h 46m Las Vegas	LAS 09:36 → RNO 11:10WN 2383	4h 49m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 09m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → RNO 21:57DL 1607	4h 56m	96%	85%
American Details →	SJC 05:59 → PHX 08:10AA 1358	2h 02m Phoenix	PHX 10:12 → RNO 12:20AA 1437	6h 21m	96%	78%
American Details →	SJC 14:35 → DFW 20:19AA 2834	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273	9h 23m	94%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON