Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3147 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3147 SJC 06:33 → SAN 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1919 SJC 15:33 → SAN 17:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3147 Southwest	SJC 06:33	SAN 08:20	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4342 Southwest	SJC 07:48	SAN 09:35	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3786 Southwest	SJC 09:48	SAN 11:35	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1307 Alaska	SJC 06:41	SAN 08:14	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
QX 2393 Horizon	SJC 17:09	SAN 18:44	23%	5%	2.3%	no record
OO 3408 SkyWest	SJC 09:29	SAN 11:05	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4347 Southwest	SJC 17:08	SAN 18:55	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4343 Southwest	SJC 18:39	SAN 20:11	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 432 Alaska	SJC 15:59	SAN 17:28	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 484 Southwest	SJC 15:23	SAN 17:10	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1919 Southwest	SJC 15:33	SAN 17:07	33%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON