Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4041 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 4041 SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 9579 SJC 08:10 → SEA 10:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	8%	4%	0.6%	95%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	9%	5%	0.6%	92%
WN 1704 Southwest	SJC 09:53	SEA 12:16	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	14%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:50	SEA 20:08	17%	7%	0.6%	87%
WN 2268 Southwest	SJC 15:53	SEA 18:16	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 13:39	SEA 15:42	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	22%	5%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 1674 Alaska	SJC 16:56	SEA 18:57	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 9579 Alaska	SJC 08:10	SEA 10:18	30%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON