Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 562 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–40%.

Safest bet that day B6 562 SJU 06:00 → BOS 10:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 462 SJU 20:07 → BOS 00:13 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 562 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 06:00	BOS 10:05	19%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 1780 Delta Flight history →	SJU 14:08	BOS 18:19	19%	7%	0.7%	80%
B6 808 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 15:30	BOS 19:37	40%	19%	1.0%	67%
B6 462 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:07	BOS 00:13	40%	18%	0.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON