tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: JetBlue via Fort Lauderdale, leaving 17:00, is the safest bet: 42% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2390 Southwest SJU 05:39 BWI 10:00 5% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 3856 Southwest SJU 15:07 BWI 19:25 21% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 8h 19m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 07m Houston IAH 12:00 → BWI 16:14UA 1720 9h 14m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 8h 32m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 53m Detroit DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715 7h 15m 82% 72%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:07 → MIA 06:06F9 3377 1h 17m Miami MIA 07:23 → BWI 10:20F9 2940 7h 13m 85% 71%
FrontierDetails → SJU 06:51 → MCO 10:19F9 2981 1h 24m Orlando MCO 11:43 → BWI 14:20F9 4004 7h 29m 93% 63%
AmericanDetails → SJU 11:52 → MIA 14:39AA 1341 1h 20m Miami MIA 15:59 → BWI 18:39AA 2104 6h 47m 89% 59%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 15:33 → FLL 18:15B6 1454 2h 44m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27B6 2994 7h 54m 91% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 1h 17m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27B6 2994 6h 27m 70% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON