Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 783 at 15:40, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 783 American Flight history →	SJU 15:40	CLT 19:39	24%	5%	1.1%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 01m	95%	81%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 17m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	9h 02m	96%	80%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → CLT 23:59UA 2074	7h 04m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	7h 13m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57DL 2352	7h 36m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 08m	80%	66%
American Details →	SJU 05:48 → MIA 08:40AA 3089	1h 24m Miami	MIA 10:04 → CLT 12:09AA 1398	6h 21m	86%	64%
Delta Details →	SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966	3h 10m New York	JFK 20:29 → CLT 23:03DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor	9h 52m	98%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 13m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:55 → CLT 23:05B6 2149	6h 05m	68%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON