tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3159 American Flight history → SJU 15:35 DFW 19:54 31% 8% 1.3% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 12m Houston IAH 12:05 → DFW 13:34UA 4024 · flown by Mesa 7h 34m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368 2h 38m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 11h 19m 98% 74%
FrontierDetails → SJU 00:30 → PHL 04:37F9 2695 1h 34m Philadelphia PHL 06:11 → DFW 08:56F9 3985 9h 26m 86% 73%
FrontierDetails → SJU 09:29 → TPA 12:55F9 2215 2h 03m Tampa TPA 14:58 → DFW 16:54F9 1333 8h 25m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 2h 42m Houston IAH 21:33 → DFW 22:45UA 1183 8h 50m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → SJU 05:48 → MIA 08:40AA 3089 53m Miami MIA 09:33 → DFW 11:40AA 893 6h 52m 86% 67%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 3h 56m Orlando MCO 10:06 → DFW 12:13F9 2885 10h 03m 99% 66%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930 54m Atlanta ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827 7h 03m 89% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 11:52 → MIA 14:39AA 1341 54m Miami MIA 15:33 → DFW 17:43AA 1824 6h 51m 75% 46%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 09:22 → FLL 12:02B6 2154 58m Fort Lauderdale FLL 13:00 → DFW 15:15B6 2182 6h 53m 73% 44%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 1h 17m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → DFW 23:16B6 2279 7h 16m 70% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON