Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:42, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1913 Delta Flight history →	SJU 14:21	DTW 19:03	12%	5%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	3h 26m Newark	EWR 08:36 → DTW 10:37UA 3700 · flown by Republic	9h 37m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:20 → JFK 11:19DL 1854	1h 46m New York	JFK 13:05 → DTW 15:00DL 1654	7h 40m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → DTW 16:06DL 1031	8h 36m	99%	83%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → DTW 00:04 +1UA 2846	7h 09m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	9h 37m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966	2h 11m New York	JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253	8h 54m	96%	78%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:21 → DTW 18:15UA 464	11h 15m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:58 +1DL 2940	7h 08m	89%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SJU 17:15 → ATL 21:24F9 2871	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:35 → DTW 00:40 +1F9 1264	7h 25m	68%	48%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 15:30 → BOS 19:37B6 808	56m Boston	BOS 20:33 → DTW 22:45B6 1337	7h 15m	58%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON